Tired of worrying about the election & economy? Worry about China instead!

Yawn. I think I only mentioned this 40 or 50 times in previous posts, but it turns out that China’s military buildup, its regional ambitions, and its long-term global strategy are on track to threaten the US’s geopolitical position. As I also mentioned, this will start happening within a decade:

CHINA is developing a modern military that will be the equal of Western armies, say defence analysts. A conference in London heard that within the next decade China will possess an army second only to America’s, a fact that could “embolden” it to military action.

Now, many otherwise savvy bloggers have suggested that China’s military is too backwards to threaten the US. The Jane’s experts (and I) beg to differ:

“China is developing a modern, highly manoeuvrable force able to operate anywhere as well if not better than Western armies,” said Christopher Foss, editor of Jane’s Armour and Artillery, who added that in the last 10 years China had made “dramatic progress”.
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By 2015, China is expected to have six Jin class submarines capable of firing the JL2 ballistic nuclear missile that could threaten both the west and east coasts of America, acting as deterrent to any intervention by Washington should China begin hostilities against Taiwan.

Now it is true that the Chinese economy is unstable, and that things could turn south for them almost overnight. That, of course, is one of the reasons they want Taiwan so badly – it is another economic jewel that will broaden their economic base, providing both stability and cash flow.

And in 5 – 10 years, anything they want, they’ll get.

Bloomberg on the threat from Russia, China, and SCO

Bloomberg has some comments from Medvedev from his trip to China:

Medvedev, speaking on the last day of a visit to China on his first foreign trip as president, said that the two neighbors have become “a major factor of global security without which the main decisions in international cooperation are impossible.”

“I will say frankly that not everyone likes the strategic cooperation between our two nations but we understand that it’s in the interests of our people and we’ll strengthen it whether others like it or not,” he told students at Beijing University today.

I think he’s been reading this blog. But what have we to look forward to?

Medvedev said that Russia and China would step up their cooperation at the United Nations Security Council, where both are veto-wielding permanent members.

That’s great – that renders the UN completely useless as a vehicle for world cooperation.

But hey!! Bloomberg is on board with the threat from SCO:

The SCO, set up with Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in 2001 to strengthen regional cooperation and combat terrorism, has become a forum for Russia and China to counter U.S. influence in energy-rich Central Asia. Its decision in 2005 to admit Iran as an observer sparked concern in the U.S.

Yes, the Russian/Chinese alliance is rolling along, and none of Bush’s feeble overtures to Russia have tempted it to leave that alliance. As I wrote a few days ago, it looks like India is starting to lean toward SCO as well, despite our nuclear deal and trade agreements.

So what’s Plan B?

And how did that Medvedev trip to China go?

A few days ago I noted that new Russian President Dmitry Medvedev made a visit to China one of his first official acts. In fact, he was only President for 2 weeks before he headed off to China. While he was there, he signed some agreements (more detail below) and took the opportunity to kick sand in the US’s face:

Speaking at a university a day after he and Chinese President Hu Jintao criticized U.S. missile defense plans, Medvedev rejected what he said was opposition to Russian-Chinese cooperation in remarks that sounded like a veiled jab at the United States.

“Some don’t like such strategic cooperation between our countries, but we understand that this cooperation serves the interests of our people, and we will strengthen it, regardless of whether others like it or not,” the Russian leader said. “Russian-Chinese relations are one of the most important factors of maintaining stability in modern conditions.”

The jabs continued:

Medvedev never mentioned the United States by name and said the Russian-Chinese alliance “is not directed against any other nation.

“It is aimed at maintaining a global balance,” he said.

“Global balance” is code for “eliminating the unipolar world dominated by the US.” As I mentioned above, Medvedev and Hu signed some agreements, none of which should be good news for the US.

Russia also strengthened its role as a supplier to China’s booming nuclear power industry Friday, signing a $1 billion deal to build a fuel enrichment facility and supply uranium.

They also signed a more general statement on global issues, including security, energy, and the environment (the best description is here. The summary as far as the US is concerned looks like this:

• US shouldn’t be the dominant player in global security
• US shouldn’t attack Iran
• US shouldn’t deploy missile defense systems

These are all pretty self-serving, of course: the motives of the first and third are obvious, and Iran is a key purchaser of Russian and Chinese military products, and a critical component of China’s energy strategy. Basically they want to stall the US until they get their economic and military ducks in a row, and then they’ll be able to dictate terms, rather than just make noise.

Unfortunately, those ducks are lining up nicely.

Iran’s special friends

Iran gave Russia and China their packet of proposals on “long-term cooperation aimed at strengthening peace, and international and regional security on a just basis.” Presumably this is the same packet they gave the UN a few days ago. The interesting part to me was a little aside from the article:

Iran said on Friday it has submitted to the Russian and Chinese Foreign Ministries a package of proposals on nuclear non-proliferation and other international security issues.
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The diplomat said Iran enjoys special relations with Russia and China, and that these countries “could play a major role in the dialogue between Iran and other countries on this issue.”

They sure do enjoy special relations, but they are very uncomfortable with their role as stalking horse for Russia and China. They keep trying to move beyond that role to the next level of relations, where they can find more security and less exposure, but Russia and China keep stringing them along.

It will be interesting to see how the two patrons react to Iran’s proposals. I suspect they’ll just use them as an excuse to do nothing for awhile, putting more pressure on the US, who hears the nuclear clock ticking…ticking…ticking…

Newsmax talks about our new Cold War

In the early days of this blog, I put together my story on the relationships among Russia and China, Iran and Syria, and terrorists and other violent factions in Iraq (including this little graphic of the situation). My point was that there is no Iraq solution without an Iranian solution, and there is no Iranian solution without a solution to Russian and Chinese support of Iran.

Today a Newsmax article puts a lot of the same story together:

Russia covertly supplies Iraqi terrorists, and to a lesser degree Syrian forces, with sophisticated weaponry of various kinds via Iranian and Syrian channels — of course, all at a huge profit.
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Moscow’s influence doesn’t end there. In 2003-2006, Russia backed Iraqi Shiite guerillas — and other Iraqi guerillas and Middle Eastern anti-American and anti-Western “non-state actors” — with the weapons and support for the purpose of attacking American troops and, eventually, undermining U.S. influence and positions all over Middle East.

Syria and Iran, two major consumers of Russian weaponry in the Middle East — acted as middlemen between Moscow and Iraqi guerillas.
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Maybe it is time for Russia to own up to its share in American troops losses and financial losses in Iraqi guerilla war.

Why do I insist that this is “Cold War II?” Here’s why:

Russia works clandestinely behind the scenes, effectively disrupting Middle East affairs and destabilizing U.S. relationships in the region.

Classic.

China’s Secret Nuclear Submarine Base

I don’t think I need to say too much about this – it pretty much underscores everything I’ve been saying since this site began. Our Chinese friends have been very, very busy over the past 7 years, and their labors are starting to bear fruit:

China has secretly built a major underground nuclear submarine base that could threaten Asian countries and challenge American power in the region, it can be disclosed.

Satellite imagery, passed to The Daily Telegraph, shows that a substantial harbour has been built which could house a score of nuclear ballistic missile submarines and a host of aircraft carriers.

In what will be a significant challenge to US Navy dominance and to countries ringing the South China Sea, one photograph shows China’s latest 094 nuclear submarine at the base just a few hundred miles from its neighbours.

Other images show numerous warships moored to long jettys and a network of underground tunnels at the Sanya base on the southern tip of Hainan island.

The article’s link to the enlarged version of the satellite photo is messed up, so here is the real link:

Satellite image of the harbor

UPDATE: Apparently Jane’s had this a week and a half ago.

UPDATE: The reaction from some authoritieson the implications of the submarine base:

The construction showed that China was “ramping up its operational capability” and developing a “blue water navy” that would challenge the dominance of the US in the Pacific, said Alex Neill, head of the Asia Security Programme at the Royal United Services Institute.

In the last 20 years China had gone from a coastal force to a navy capable of “exerting its influence far afield,” a senior Royal Navy officer said.
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There are also concerns that Beijing has secretly developed a broad military strategy – including internet assaults and satellite strikes – that could allow it to take Taiwan with the US unable to respond.
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Chinese defence expenditure is estimated by the Pentagon to be $50 billion (£25 billion) but analysts believe large chunks of the budget are “squirreled away” and it could be as high as $200 billion making it the second largest in the world after America.

The PLA is developing a strategy called the “sea denial campaign” which would prevent America intervening in any conflict with Taiwan, Mr Brown said.

It entails asymmetric conflict in which China would use cyber warfare and laser energy to wipe out communications. Anti-satellite missiles, potentially launched from submarines, would ensure that America was “blind” over the Far East. The Chinese have already proven that they have these capabilities as well as using espionage to remove military technology from the US.

China & Russia: Buds or Rivals?

I’ve spent quite a bit of time on this blog trying to raise awareness of the potential economic and military threats from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and of the ominous nature of the growing collaboration between Russia and China (see the “Cold War II” category in the sidebar). But the question remains: are Russia and China fast becoming bosom buddies or will competing interests and their history of mutual enmity cause their alliance to stall?

A week-old article from Radio Free Europe discusses this very question:

When Russia and China held joint military exercises last summer, it appeared that a powerful new strategic alliance was about to come of age. The two countries, after all, routinely cooperate on the UN Security Council to thwart the West on issues ranging from Kosovo’s independence to sanctions against Iran. They are the frontline states in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which both have touted as an emerging Asian military powerhouse. They also share a common stated desire to curb U.S. global influence and establish what both Moscow and Beijing call a “multipolar world.”

But despite the hype in Moscow and Beijing, analysts say the long-term prospects for an anti-Western Sino-Russian axis are less promising than official statements suggest. Beneath the platitudes about strategic global cooperation and partnership lies a growing local rivalry: a fierce competition between Moscow and Beijing for energy reserves in Central Asia, a region in both countries’ backyards that both view as a vital sphere of influence.

But the “fierce competition” doesn’t really amount to much – it is the normal jockeying for markets and resources, and amounts to more of a price war than a serious geopolitical confrontation. The article focuses on gas deals in Turkmenistan, noting that both Russia and China are vying for deals. Russia wants to resell the gas to China, China wants a direct link. Business as usual.

But how serious is it?

“I wouldn’t say it is a conflict; that is too strong a word,” says Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the Moscow-based journal “Russia in Global Affairs.” “We will see a soft competition that could heat up as China becomes more successful. Russia doesn’t want to be China’s junior partner in this region.”

So, no reason at the moment to believe that the Sino-Russian alliance will fall apart. But there was this interesting quote from the same fellow:

“In the past year or so, there has been a lot of discussion about the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but Russia’s active participation and its desire to develop this organization has significantly decreased,” Lukyanov says. “This is because it has become clear that China will play the leading role and Russia doesn’t need this.”

I haven’t seen the decline in participation that he references, but it’s definitely something to keep an eye on. Without Russia’s involvement, SCO will become much less of a global player. I kind of doubt that that’s how it will play out, though.

And Iran just put in its bid to join SCO, so SCO’s star still seems to be rising.

My ears are burning

I mean, who else could the Chinese Foreign Ministry be talking about?

“We urge the U.S. to stop its cold war thinking and stop groundless accusations and do more to contribute to mutual trust and friendship between our two peoples,” Liu said.

I got your mutual trust and friendship right here, pal:

According to reports, German and British intelligence officials have also warned recently that China has stepped up its efforts to collect military secrets and advanced technology.

It’d be a lot easier to stop cold war thinking if we weren’t already 4 years into our new cold war.

Russia pokes the Japanese

They poked them hard enough to scramble some Japanese fighters:

A Russian air force bomber briefly violated Japanese airspace over an uninhabited island just south of Tokyo on Saturday, the Foreign Ministry said.
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Japan’s navy scrambled 22 fighter jets, including F-15s, and two airborne warning and control aircraft known as AWACs, a Defense Ministry official said on condition of anonymity, citing protocol.

Japan held a rally Thursday to demand the return of a disputed island chain that Russia seized in the closing days of World War II. The capture of the four islands, called the Kurils in Russia and the Northern Territories in Japan, kept the two countries from signing a peace treaty.
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Otsuki said he didn’t know if Saturday’s flyby was related to the rally Thursday. He said Russia last violated Japanese airspace in January 2006 near Rebun Island off Japan’s northern main island of Hokkaido — and close to the disputed northern islands.

The Japanese scrambled 22 fighters? They must have been a tad perturbed.

Lessee . . . now which war does this remind me of?

More MSM Awareness of the Second Cold War

I knew I should have written a book last year. Oh well, there’s still time, because this fellow only managed to write about part of the problem. Apparently a Mr. Edward Lucas has just published a book on Russia and its return to Cold War policies:

So you thought the Cold War was over, did you? Welcome to Vladimir Putin’s new Russian Empire.
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The Russian bear is now throwing his weight about in the international arena, inciting riots in neighboring states or cutting off energy supplies where the Kremlin feels its interests and prestige are at stake.Whether this campaign of bullying is comparable to the Cold War is a matter of huge importance to the West. Hence it matters which experts we pay attention to.

One whom I can unreservedly recommend is Edward Lucas, an authority on the subject who has been covering the region since the 1980s and has for many years been the Central and Eastern Europe correspondent for the Economist. Mr. Lucas has just published “The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces Both Russia and the West” (Bloomsbury).

Of course, we all know that the Russian threat would be much less significant were it not for its new best buddy, China. By focusing only on Russia, Mr. Lucas has missed the core of the problem. So maybe I ought to write my ultimate Cold War tome after all. I could call it: “The Second Cold War: You’ll be Begging for Global Warming.”

The press finally wakes up

The lovely but frenzied lauraw dropped a link here, so it is my gentlemanly duty to concoct a post therefrom. Fortunately it’s about China, blending in nicely with my regular servings of Chinese paranoia.

In this particular article we read about the adventures of a team of US newsmen who visited one of the big Internet portals in China. They were impressed with the modern management, slick glass building, the savvy youngsters, etc. All the trappings of a US high technology company.

They weren’t so impressed, though, with the government handlers that went everywhere with them, ensuring that they only saw and heard what they were supposed to. When they finally met with an official from the Foreign Affairs Ministry, all became clear:

“Let me thank you very much for the questions that you asked,” Liu said. “The questions are also rewarding for me … and also how we need to better enable the outside, especially friends from the media, to see our policies — the thinking process behind these policies — in a more accurate and better way.”

Ah, there it was. They need to show us, their “media friends,” how to better report on China.

This fellow was surprised at this, apparently never before realizing how tightly totalitarian regimes control their public image. It amazes me that he and his peers can still be this naive: they have been used as the tools and weapons of dictators, criminals, terrorists, and other unsavory types for years.

The other point is that the US has been helping, quite uncritically, to fuel China’s explosive growth. All the MBAs have $ signs in their eyes as they try to get involved in China’s enormous economic potential, paying no attention to the darker aspects of the country. The increased interaction with the Western world is having a liberalizing effect on the population, but hasn’t affected the ruling class at all.

It would help a lot if we could meter our avarice and slow down China’s growth, giving our culture more time to work its insidious magic on the Chinese. Then, by the time they attained economic parity, they would essentially be us. But right now they’re growing far too fast for that to happen. As the article shows, the leaders of China haven’t lost their tight grip on their people or their economy.

A couple of articles that pooh-pooh the emerging Russian/Chinese threat

Back on my favorite topic: the shifting of the geopolitical/energy/military landscape being driven largely by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). There are a couple of recent articles written that oppose my viewpoint that SCO is a rapidly emerging threat to US interests in Asia, Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America. They’re wrong, naturally, but in the interest of balance and fairness, I thought I’d give anybody who thinks I’m paranoid a little ammo to use against me.

…and what have Russia and China been up to during my absence?

I’m sure you know that Russia and China have continued their pattern of economic alliances and regular summit meetings, and you may have noticed over the past few weeks that Russia is likely to reabsorb Belarus. A new German poll tells us that people worldwide feel that Russia, China, India, and the EU are ascendant, while:

The US will be “the great loser of the future”… 

An interesting analysis of why Russia was so prone to return to its bad old ways was published yesterday. Here’s the author’s encapsulation of our current situation:

A resurgent Russia is the world’s foremost revisionist power, rejecting a status quo predicated on the notion of a Western victory in the Cold War. Its two super-power assets ― nuclear weapons and energy ― make it a potential leader of all those lesser powers dissatisfied with their position in the world. A potential Russia-China axis based on shared resistance to U.S. hegemony carries the seeds of a new bipolarity. 

The author then addresses the question:

Why didn’t Russia become more integrated with the West after the breakup of the Soviet Union?

His answer:

Western expectations of postcommunist Russia’s trajectory rested on three assumptions that proved to be mistaken. First, most of Russia’s elite rejected the view that the loss of empire was irreversible. Second, the Bush administration’s unilateralism shattered the belief that the US would continue to provide the world with “multilateral” leadership; indeed, U.S. unilateralism was a cue for Russia to pursue its own unilateral policy. Third, Russia has not yet become economically integrated with the West, especially Europe, as was expected.

The entire piece is worth a read.

It’s Cold War II, with all the trappings of the original

I’ve been calling it a Cold War for awhile, but it didn’t have that Cold War feel without the old Soviet probing and prodding. Not to worry – the Russians haven’t lost a step:

While the Kremlin hesitated before responding to Britain’s expulsion of four diplomats, the Russian military engaged in some old-fashioned sabre-rattling.

Two Tu95 “Bear” bombers were dispatched from their base on the Kola Peninsula in the Arctic Circle and headed towards British airspace.
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Two Tornado fighters, part of the RAF’s Quick Reaction Alert, took off from RAF Leeming, in Yorkshire, to confront the Russian aircraft, after they were shadowed by two F16s from the Royal Norwegian Air Force, The Times has learnt.

“The Russians turned back before they reached British airspace,” an RAF spokesman said.

Brings back old memories, doesn’t it?

Italy sees the Second Cold War coming

Haven’t posted on Cold War II in a while, though everything is moving forward on SCO’s side (SCO = Shanghai Cooperation Organization). In April, SCO announced that it was giving invitations for full memberships to Iran, India, Mongolia, and Pakistan. That will pretty much sew up Central Asia.

Yesterday an Italian fellow woke up to the threat:

The Pact (SCO) is an intergovernmental organisation founded in 2001 and its full members are Russia, China and four central Asian republics. Over the last two years the organisation has made great strides, coordinating numerous aspects of policy among the six members and reaching significant military agreements between Moscow and Beijing. Some American analysts describe it as “the NATO of the East” and for some time now Russia and China have been voting together in the UN Security Council.

So even if it’s not a Cold War yet, it could become one in the not too distant future. Russia and China also have the means to bring Europe to its knees economically, the one by turning off gas supplies and the other through the unstoppable flow of its export goods.

He’s quite correct, though I’m obviously willing to call it a Cold War already, based on China’s and Russia’s substantial military and technological aid to Iran (and Syria).