The media/punditry turnaround on the Iraq war has been nothing short of stunning. Whereas two months ago it was a well-kept secret from liberals and the MSM, today it’s being trumpeted by every media organ. Here’s Kissinger in today’s Washington Post:
Almost all objective observers agree that major progress has been made on all three fronts of the Iraq war: Al-Qaeda, the Sunni jihadist force recruited largely from outside the country, seems on the run in Iraq; the indigenous Sunni insurrection attempting to restore Sunni predominance has largely died down; and the Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad has, at least temporarily, mastered the Shiite militias that were challenging its authority. After years of disappointment, we face the need to shift gears mentally to consider emerging prospects of success.
It’s great that this is happening, and great that it is being acknowledged. Finally.
The lesson of Iraq, though, should not be that the Surge worked, nor that Petraeus’s counterinsurgency strategy is outstanding. It should be, rather, that something would have worked.
What I mean is that back in December 2006, when casualties were appalling, atrocities were rampant, and stability seemed a dream, more than half the country wanted to walk away. They weren’t willing to say, “We’ll stick with this until something works. We’ll keep working until stability is achieved.”
Many pundits were claiming that nothing would ever work, short of dividing the country into 3 parts or allowing the Shi’ites to eradicate the Sunnis. It was a ridiculous position to take, claiming that “nothing” could ever work, but it was commonly accepted at the time. And the idea that by just persevering – learning from our mistakes and continuing to try new approaches – we might eventually prevail, was mocked as naive at best, and bloodthirsty at worst.
Now Al Qaedans are fleeing Iraq and heading to Afghanistan, which is rapidly becoming their primary battlefront. And I’m sure the same voices will be clamoring for our retreat from the “impossible” situation there, as well. In fact, they started last summer:
Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), a senior defense authorizer, wants the U.S. out of Afghanistan immediately, calling operations there “futile” in trying to effect political change in a country with a tangled history.
So the question is: what lesson will they take away from Iraq, and will that temper their negativism this time? The answer, I fear, does not bode well for Afghanis.