The silver lining of rising wheat costs

The opium crops in Afghanistan have been a problem area since well before the invasion. Since the invasion, the UN has been reluctant to crack down on opium growers, since it is their only livelihood, and is a key part of the economy. The downside, beyond the drug aspect, is that the opium passes from the farmers to local warlords or the Taliban, who sell it to raise funds.

But there’s some hope that the situation is changing organically:

Afghan farmers hope to capitalise on soaring food costs by growing wheat instead of poppy crops, with the fall in heroin prices further fuelling the switch.

The price of a tonne of wheat in Afghanistan has almost trebled this year, causing acute food shortages. A changeover of crops has begun in key agricultural regions, said Tekeste Tekie, country representative for the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation.

He said a significant increase in wheat crops is expected from next year’s harvest. “The high price of commodities has encouraged farmers to switch from poppy cultivation to wheat. In fact, we are already seeing evidence of this happening, for instance in the Bamian region, where some farmers have planted half wheat and half poppy crops,” Tekie said.

The growing season runs from November to June in Afghanistan. If wheat prices stay near their current level, supported by regional subsidies, an Afghan farmer can make up to a third more on wheat than poppy by next year’s harvest, according to figures from the Ministry of Agriculture.

I just hope that the transition doesn’t drive the price of poppies up.