Fred Kaplan – cherrypicking his data like a Slate writer should

Fred Kaplan wrote a hand wringing article in Slate today, entitled:

An Officer and a Family Man: Why is the Army losing so many talented midlevel officers?

In the article he tells us:

For one reason or another, junior and midlevel officers—lieutenants, captains, and lieutenant colonels—are leaving the Army in droves.

West Point cadets are obligated to stay in the Army for five years after graduating. Typically, one-quarter to one-third of them decide not to sign on for a second term. In 2003, when the Class of 1998 faced that decision, just 18 percent of them quit the force; memories of Sept. 11 were still strong; the war in Iraq was underway; duty called. But in 2006, when the 905 officers from the Class of 2001 had to decide to stay or leave, 44 percent quit the Army—the service’s highest loss rate in three decades.

He attributes these losses to the stress of extended tours in Iraq and Afghanistan on young officers with families and professional wives (i.e., it’s Bush’s fault).

But hold on, Fred – West Point graduates only make up a fraction of the officers corp. How are the rest of the company grade officers doing?

Well, not great, actually – particularly for an Army that’s increasing in size. But not as bad as the late 90′s, either, when there was no war. The retention in the armed services has always been driven by the market – when compensation doesn’t match the sacrifices in lifestyle and security, the military loses members. When that happens, the military increases compensation to reverse the effect (as happened with the drop in loss rates in 2006).

Could the situation be improved? Certainly. Is it the emergency situation Kaplan portrays?

Not nearly.