The evidence that Russia and China have initiated a Cold War against the US is mounting, but the nagging question remains: “Can they really be working together after all those centuries of enmity?”
In this post, I’d like to show that the answer is not only “yes” but a resounding “yes.” Not that the enmity has evaporated, but the mutual back-scratching/enemy-of-my-enemy type of diplomacy has resulted in an increasingly successful and economically rewarding relationship between the two giants. The actual dollar value of the relationship is far more important to Russia than China, as shown in the graph below. This graph compares the trade between the countries to their total international trade (imports + exports). As you can see, China is growing rapidly in importance to Russia.
What the chart doesn’t point out is the importance of Russian exports to China. While the total trade is small, Russia exports energy, oil, and raw materials to China, and these are critical to maintaining China’s economic growth rate. I’m running out of time today, so I’ll plot the imports and exports at another time. I’m also going to explore the arms sales relationships between the two countries.
But at this point, the message is that trade between the two countries went from $8 billion in 2000 to $29.1 billion in 2005. They are projecting trade between $60 billion and $80 billion by 2010. While the actual trade numbers between the countries aren’t that impressive in absolute terms, the groundwork they’ve been laying will continue to lead to enormous growth in trade and a solidification of their partnership.
On the other hand, there are those who disagree. A Russian academician tells us:
Finally, although the political and economic foundations of Russian-Chinese-Indian cooperation are strengthening, it would be wrong to overestimate the actual progress. At this point, each of the three countries views relationships within the Moscow-Beijing-New Delhi triangle as a matter of secondary importance, as something hypothetical rather than realistic, or as a future project of the “reserve airport” type – not really necessary.
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Naturally, a Russian-Chinese-Indian partnership will not advance further on its own. Continued efforts on the part of each country are necessary to achieve progress that will serve their individual interests, while consolidating their positions in the world.
But I believe that there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Russian-Chinese part of the partnership, at least, is doing just fine. Let me close with a quote from yet another source which nicely summarizes where we were in 2003 when we were paying no attention to this issue:
Economic ties between Russia and China are also growing, with arms sales being a key element. Indeed, in 2004 the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reported that Russia ranked second in the world (after the U.S.) in arms exports, with most going to China and India. Beyond arms, Russia’s trade with China in 2003 exceeded $11.4 billion, surpassing Russia’s trade with the U.S. The paradox for Russia and China is that while both are concerned about U.S. hegemony, they do not want to alienate the U.S. because it offers economic and technological advantages that cannot be found elsewhere.
Although Russia moved closer to the West after September 11, 2001, it continued to nurture its relationship with China. Within days of creating the NATO-Russia Council, Russian leaders met with President Jiang to reassure China that Russia’s improved relations with the West did not jeopardize Russian-Chinese ties. Consultations between senior Russian and Chinese officials continued in 2003. During Putin’s visit to China in 2004, both leaders signed 13 agreements to cooperate on issues such as space flight, atomic energy, and high technology, and issued a joint communiqué on terrorism. China also pledged to invest $12 billion in the Russian energy sector and to pursue a deal to build a pipeline that would run from the Siberian city of Angarsk to the Daqing oil refineries in northeastern China. Most important was the agreement to demarcate the border on the Ussuri River, which resolved a 40-year-old border dispute.
